97 research outputs found
Pelagic calcium carbonate production and shallow dissolution in the North PaciïŹc Ocean
Planktonic calcifying organisms play a key role in regulating ocean carbonate
chemistry and atmospheric CO 2 . Surprisingly, references to the absolute and
relative contribution of these organisms to calcium carbonate production are
lacking. Here we report quantiïŹcation of pelagic calcium carbonate produc-
tion in the North PaciïŹc, providing new insights on the contribution of the
three main planktonic calcifying groups. Our results show that coccolitho-
phores dominate the living calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) standing stock, with
coccolithophore calcite comprising ~90% of total CaCO 3 production, and
pteropods and foraminifera playing a secondary role. We show that pelagic
CaCO 3 production is higher than the sinking ïŹux of CaCO 3 at 150 and 200 m at
ocean stations ALOHA and PAPA, implying that a large portion of pelagic
calcium carbonate is remineralised within the photic zone; this extensive
shallow dissolution explains the apparent discrepancy between previous
estimates of CaCO 3 production derived from satellite observations/biogeo-
chemical modeling versus estimates from shallow sediment traps. We suggest
future changes in the CaCO 3 cycle and its impact on atmospheric CO 2 will
largely depend on how the poorly-understood processes that determine
whether CaCO 3 is remineralised in the photic zone or exported to depth
respond to anthropogenic warming and acidiïŹcation
Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Latent Markov Random Fields and Social Networks
Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and
machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is
extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the
calculation of an intractable normalising constant. This problem has received
much attention, but very little of this has focussed on the important practical
case where the data consists of noisy or incomplete observations of the
underlying hidden structure. This paper specifically addresses this problem,
comparing two alternative methodologies. In the first of these approaches
particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (Andrieu et al., 2010) is used to efficiently
explore the parameter space, combined with the exchange algorithm (Murray et
al., 2006) for avoiding the calculation of the intractable normalising constant
(a proof showing that this combination targets the correct distribution in
found in a supplementary appendix online). This approach is compared with
approximate Bayesian computation (Pritchard et al., 1999). Applications to
estimating the parameters of Ising models and exponential random graphs from
noisy data are presented. Each algorithm used in the paper targets an
approximation to the true posterior due to the use of MCMC to simulate from the
latent graphical model, in lieu of being able to do this exactly in general.
The supplementary appendix also describes the nature of the resulting
approximation.Comment: 26 pages, 2 figures, accepted in Journal of Computational and
Graphical Statistics (http://www.amstat.org/publications/jcgs.cfm
Bayesian model comparison with un-normalised likelihoods
Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalizing constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte Carlo methods is not possible due to the intractability of their likelihood functions. Several methods that permit exact, or close to exact, simulation from the posterior distribution have recently been developed. However, estimating the evidence and Bayesâ factors for these models remains challenging in general. This paper describes new random weight importance sampling and sequential Monte Carlo methods for estimating BFs that use simulation to circumvent the evaluation of the intractable likelihood, and compares them to existing methods. In some cases we observe an advantage in the use of biased weight estimates. An initial investigation into the theoretical and empirical properties of this class of methods is presented. Some support for the use of biased estimates is presented, but we advocate caution in the use of such estimates
Bayesian Computation with Intractable Likelihoods
This article surveys computational methods for posterior inference with
intractable likelihoods, that is where the likelihood function is unavailable
in closed form, or where evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible. We review
recent developments in pseudo-marginal methods, approximate Bayesian
computation (ABC), the exchange algorithm, thermodynamic integration, and
composite likelihood, paying particular attention to advancements in
scalability for large datasets. We also mention R and MATLAB source code for
implementations of these algorithms, where they are available.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1503.0806
Increasing Costs Due to Ocean Acidification Drives Phytoplankton to Be More Heavily Calcified: Optimal Growth Strategy of Coccolithophores
Ocean acidification is potentially one of the greatest threats to marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling. Amongst calcifying organisms, coccolithophores have received special attention because their calcite precipitation plays a significant role in alkalinity flux to the deep ocean (i.e., inorganic carbon pump). Currently, empirical effort is devoted to evaluating the plastic responses to acidification, but evolutionary considerations are missing from this approach. We thus constructed an optimality model to evaluate the evolutionary response of coccolithophorid life history, assuming that their exoskeleton (coccolith) serves to reduce the instantaneous mortality rates. Our model predicted that natural selection favors constructing more heavily calcified exoskeleton in response to increased acidification-driven costs. This counter-intuitive response occurs because the fitness benefit of choosing a better-defended, slower growth strategy in more acidic conditions, outweighs that of accelerating the cell cycle, as this occurs by producing less calcified exoskeleton. Contrary to the widely held belief, the evolutionarily optimized population can precipitate larger amounts of CaCO3 during the bloom in more acidified seawater, depending on parameter values. These findings suggest that ocean acidification may enhance the calcification rates of marine organisms as an adaptive response, possibly accompanied by higher carbon fixation ability. Our theory also provides a compelling explanation for the multispecific fossil time-series record from âŒ200 years ago to present, in which mean coccolith size has increased along with rising atmospheric CO2 concentration
A framework for parameter estimation and model selection from experimental data in systems biology using approximate Bayesian computation.
As modeling becomes a more widespread practice in the life sciences and biomedical sciences, researchers need reliable tools to calibrate models against ever more complex and detailed data. Here we present an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework and software environment, ABC-SysBio, which is a Python package that runs on Linux and Mac OS X systems and that enables parameter estimation and model selection in the Bayesian formalism by using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approaches. We outline the underlying rationale, discuss the computational and practical issues and provide detailed guidance as to how the important tasks of parameter inference and model selection can be performed in practice. Unlike other available packages, ABC-SysBio is highly suited for investigating, in particular, the challenging problem of fitting stochastic models to data. In order to demonstrate the use of ABC-SysBio, in this protocol we postulate the existence of an imaginary reaction network composed of seven interrelated biological reactions (involving a specific mRNA, the protein it encodes and a post-translationally modified version of the protein), a network that is defined by two files containing 'observed' data that we provide as supplementary information. In the first part of the PROCEDURE, ABC-SysBio is used to infer the parameters of this system, whereas in the second part we use ABC-SysBio's relevant functionality to discriminate between two different reaction network models, one of them being the 'true' one. Although computationally expensive, the additional insights gained in the Bayesian formalism more than make up for this cost, especially in complex problems
Coccolithophore response to climate and surface hydrography in Santa Barbara Basin, California, AD 1917-2004
International audienceThe varved sedimentary AD 1917-2004 record from the depositional center of the Santa Barbara Basin (SBB, California) was analyzed with monthly to triannual resolution to yield relative abundances of six coccolithophore species representing at least 96% of the coccolithophore assemblage. Seasonal/annual relative abundances respond to climatic and surface hydrographic conditions in the SBB, whereby (i) the three species G. oceanica, H. carteri and F. profunda are characteristic of the strength of the northward flowing warm California Counter Current, (ii) the two species G. ericsonii and G. muellerae are associated with the cold equatorward flowing California Current, (iii) and E. huxleyi appears to be endemic to the SBB. Spectral analyses on relative abundances of these species show that all are influenced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and/or by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Increased relative abundances of G. oceanica and H. carteri are associated with warm ENSO events, G. muellerae responds to warm PDO events and the abundance of G. ericsonii increases during cold PDO events. Morphometric parameters measured on E. huxleyi, G. muellerae and G. oceanica indicate increasing coccolithophore shell carbonate mass from similar to 1917 until 2004 concomitant with rising pCO(2) and sea surface temperature in the region of the SBB
Mediterranean carbonate system dynamics and planktonic biocalcification during the last 19,000 years
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